A study by CTE found with “robust federal support,” the nationwide fleet transition to zero-emission vehicles would be possible by 2035.
The transit bus fleet in the United States could transition to full zero-emission vehicles by 2035 at a cost of between $56.22 billion and $88.91 billion according to a new report from the Center for Transportation and the Environment (CTE).
The report assumes a mix of battery-electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles will be needed to meet the transition target and accounts for vehicles used for service by transit agencies of all sizes, not just heavy-duty 30- to 60-foot buses. In both the low cost and high costs scenarios, the vehicles themselves account for between 51 percent and 59 percent of the costs, followed by infrastructure, technical assistance and Federal Transit Administration innovation and bus testing costs.
The report included “robust federal support for research, development and component testing” as part of the cost assessment, but also noted several policy areas where zero-emission fleet transition could be supported through actions at the Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Department of Energy and Internal Revenue Service.
“Rapidly electrifying the U.S. transit system has to be done the right way,” said Dan Raudebaugh, executive director of CTE. “Transit agencies need more than vehicles to successfully make this transition, and the federal government is well-positioned to provide that much-needed support.”
While the vehicles account for most of the cost in the scenarios, CTE noted two areas that would be central to successfully transitioning the U.S. transit fleet to zero emissions: Technology development and workforce development. CTE points out the federal government has been a leader in technology development, but notes “very little of its current funding supports vehicle technology development or [zero-emission buses] specifically.”
The report says technology breakthroughs are necessary, such as in battery and fuel cell technologies, to accelerate adoption of zero-emission vehicles. The report also recognizes federal testing programs will need to grow to support new zero-emission technologies.
Zero-emission vehicles have different operational characteristics versus conventionally fueled vehicles, which will propel a need for new workforce development requirements. The report states sustained workforce development will need to be in place for transit operators, technicians, engineers and planners as fleets evolve.